The Builders Merchants Federation鈥檚 Summer Forecast reveals a slight upward adjustment to 2.5% in the baseline forecast for sales of building materials in 2025, due to marginally better-than-expected growth rates in the first half of the year.
The first six months of 2025 showed the first signs of an improving market, with the value of sales growing by 1.9% in the first half of the year.聽
However, the forecast for 2026 remains unchanged from the BMF鈥檚 Spring Forecast at 3.1%, although lower and upper forecast scenarios are also provided due to continued economic uncertainty.
Price growth throughout the sector has also been slower than expected, with the two largest categories, heavy building materials and timber & joinery, recording year-on-year price deflation of 2.4% and 2.8% respectively, for the first half of 2025. This has acted as a dampener on revenue growth.
Builders Merchants Federation chief executive John Newcomb said: 鈥淭he key thing that is missing is 鈥榗onfidence鈥�. When consumers and businesses feel optimistic about the economy, they are more likely to spend and invest, fuelling growth and job creation. Economic uncertainty dampens confidence and holds back growth, and we have been in this cycle for some time.
鈥淥ur members would certainly appreciate confidence-boosting stimulus measures such as lower borrowing costs, planning reform or wider support for housebuilding, particularly for SME contractors.
鈥淒espite these concerns, we recognise that demand was stronger than expected in the first half of 2025, even when confidence was low.聽 Conditions remain tough, but as long as there are no further shocks in the autumn budget, we believe the market is likely to meet the forecasted growth rate for the year.
鈥� Uncertainty remains a key theme, however.聽 Looking ahead to 2026, our forecasted baseline year-on-year growth rate of 3.1% is tempered by lower and upper forecast scenarios of 1.2% and 3.7%.鈥�
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